By Malik Siraj Akbar

The Pakistan Muslim League (P.M.L.-N) hasattained the required support to form a coalition government in Balochistan after the Pakhtunkhawa Milli Awami Party (P.K.M.P) of Mahmood Khan Achakzai and the National Party of Dr. Abdul Malik Baloch announced to join the next administration. The new coalition partners have decided to keep the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (J.U.I.-Fazal) and the Pakistan Muslim League (P.M.L-Quaid-e-Azam) out of the upcoming government because of their flawed policies in the past governments they headed. It seems a little strange considering the fact that the P.M.L-N has invited the J.U.I-F to join its government at the Center. The reason for excluding J.U.I-F from the Balochistan government could probably be P.K.M.P.’s opposition to the right wing party, which was recently heavily defeated by the latter in the Pashtun-majority districts. 

The P.M.L.N’s method to lead the coalition government in Balochistan is, however, faulty. It clearly indicates P.M.L.N’s lack of respect for the local mandate.  After the 2008 elections, for example, the Pakistan People’s Party, which became the main ruling party at the Center, also imposed its chief minister upon the province despite obtaining fewer seats than the P.M.L.-Q in the provincial legislature. This time, the P.M.L-N did not win most seats either but it is still determined to influence the government-formation process in Balochistan and impose its man, Sardar Sanaullah Zehri, as the chief executive of the province. What makes it easier for major political parties like the P.M.L.-N and the P.P.P. to dominate the provincial government is their ability to buy off the independent candidates.

The good news for the P.M.L.-N is the joining of Baloch and the Pashtun nationalists of the new government. These two parties are known for their progressive views and popularity among the masses. They boycotted the last general elections and have won a sizable number of seats in return of their electoral promise to their voters to bring peace and stability in Balochistan after coming into power.

What will distinguish the upcoming parliament from the previous one is the presence of a strong opposition comprising of veteran politicians from the J.U.I.-F and the P.M.L-Q. It is still not known whether or not Sardar Akhtar Mengal of the Balochistan National Party, who has been complaining about election fraud, would join the government or prefer to sit in the opposition. While joining the provincial government would contradict his allegations of fraud, sitting with the J.U.I.-F on the opposition benches would make him look even more awkward because of his longstanding opposition to the J.U.I-F. After the passage of the 18th Amendment, the provincial governments are also required to restrict the number of ministers in the provincial cabinets which means everyone who will support the future government would not necessarily become a minister, as was seen during the dark days of Nawab Aslam Raisani’s government.

What has sent waves of shock and disappointment ahead of the formation of the new government in Balochistan is the P.M.L-N’s decision to nominate a notorious tribal chief as its candidate for the office of chief minister. Sardar Sanaullah Zehri is in fact the only remaining man in the Balochistan government who remained a part of the past two governments. In 2002, he was appointed as pro-Musharraf Jam Yousaf’s Minister for Home and Tribal Affairs while he remained Nawab Aslam Raisani’s Minister for Services and General Administration (S&GAD). Mr. Zehri has a reputation as a corrupt politician, criminal and tyrant tribal chief. He is controversial to such an extent that he has disputes with almost everyone in Balochistan, ranging from his own brothers to most respected Baloch nationalist leaders like Nawab Khair Baksh Marri and Sardar Attaullah Mengal.

Since Mr. Zehri has still not been appointed as the chief minister,  the P.M.L-N. should immediately withdraw his name from the race. His appointment as the head of the government will not only fail in resolving the existing crises but it will surely open new fronts of unwonted political and tribal clashes which will lead to further destabilization of  Balochistan.

If elections were meant to bring a change then the P.M.L-N. should help Balochistan achieve that goal. A man who has already become deeply objectionable in the national and local media should not lead the future government. Mr. Zehri has not only taken public fights with the Marris and the Mengals but has also provided space to Mr. Sarfaraz Bugti, an ardent opponent of Nawabzada Bramadgh Bugti, the chairman of the Baloch Republican Party.

The P.M.L.-N. should take advantage of the National Party’s decision to join the coalition government and recommend veteran Baloch nationalist leader Dr. Malik Baloch  as the chief minister. Dr. Baloch, a former education minister and a member of the Senate, fully understands the complexities of Baloch society and enjoys a better reputation than Mr. Zehri. Dr. Baloch is the symbol of Balochistan’s educated middle class and by supporting people like him the P.M.L-N. will also help the Baloch people get out of the cultures of tribalism. If we want to change Balochistan, we should trust and empower the educated middle class of the province. Appointment of a tribal chieftain will take us back to square one where Islamabad patronized Baloch tribal chiefs for its own benefits. Dr. Baloch may not be able to fully resolve all of Balochistan’s problems but hsi appointment will at least help in liberating and empowering the province’s middle class.

Published in The Baloch Hal on May 18, 2013

The Balochistan National Party (B.N.P.) of Sardar Akhtar Mengal has rejected the results of May 11 polls and launched a massive protest campaign against what it calls as the rigged polls. The Pashtunkhawa Milli Awami Party and the National Party, which performed beyond expectations, are neither a part of Mr. Mengal’s protest nor are they very happy with his  objections on the election results. The B.N.P. says government authorities have intentionally delayed the results of certain constituencies and seats that were traditionally won by the Balochs in Quetta have also been won by the Pashtun nationalists. 

The B.N.P. supporters blocked the National Highway in Khzudar district on Tuesday to protest against the results. The protesters blocked the highway for 26 hours suspending road links between Balochistan and Sindh provinces. In addition, the B.N.P. has also called a more robust Balochistan wide campaign starting from May 15  as a part of its renewed protests.

By and large, most political parties in Balochistan seem satisfied over the outcome of the elections because all of them have won a certain number of seats. Unlike the three other provinces of Pakistan, Balochistan is the only place where one single party has not acquired absolute majority. That said, every party is somewhat represented in the provincial assembly.

The only parties dissatisfied with the results are the B.N.P.-Mengal, B.N.P-Awami and the Hazara Democratic Party. Rejection of one’s defeat is such a common practice in Pakistan’s politics that it is not very easy to convince the government, the media and the civil society about  the validity of the complaints unless one truly provides incontrovertible evidence of fraud.

If the Establishment truly interfered in this year’s elections, the  winners in that case should have been Pakistan People’s Party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-e-Azam and the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, which controlled the previous government.

Ironically, Sardar Mengal would not complain of corruption and rigging on the very seat he won from his hometown constituency. As a mature politician, Mr. Mengal should demonstrate sportsman’s spirit and accept the results of the election.

Mr.  Mengal has to ponder over the following reasons why his party actually failed during the elections.

First, most of the Baloch people have turned hostile toward the  State itself.  They refrained from voting on the election day as a mark of protest against Pakistan’s repressive policies against the Baloch people. Even, a lot of people within the B.N.P. were not happy with Sardar Mengal’s decision to contest the elections in the first place because they believed it would make them look ‘insufficiently patriotic’ in the Baloch nationalist movement. The Baloch sense of boycott of every Pakistani institution and practice has reached an alarming level.

Such passionate anti-Pakistan sentiments may have their own counterproductive outcomes for the Baloch in the future. If they continue to remain so aloof to the system, they will lose more seats in the provincial parliament, civil and military bureaucracy, professional colleges and every other sphere of life. The Baloch youth is no longer enthusiastic to become the beneficiary of Pakistani offers of employment and development. Despondency has reached an unprecedented level. Nothing, including Imran Khan’s musical election campaigns, for example, cheered the Baloch youth. There seems no Baloch leader in the arena who can give the Baloch a sense  of integration and reconciliation with the Pakistani federation. The gulf has significantly widened and the ordinary Baloch is more attached to the romantic mantra of Baloch freedom than promises of progress, success and development while living within Pakistan.

If politicians are change-makers and master negotiators then here is the challenge for them to win the hearts of the angry Baloch youth.

Two, many of the Baloch voters did not get out of their homes because the armed groups that seek Balochistan’s independence from Pakistan asked people to stay inside their homes. The armed groups and their supporters, such as the Baloch National Front,  took several months to campaign, through wall chalking, SMS,  newspaper statements and messages on the social media, to prepare the Baloch to boycott the “Pakistani elections.”

A part of the reason for the Baloch boycott maybe the fear of attacks from the nationalist armed groups but it is not entirely true that the Baloch people did not vote only because of the fear of the underground organizations.  Those who supported the boycott were actually the ones who had been impressed and convinced by the very effective anti-election campaign. On the contrary, the parties that participated in the elections almost did nothing to reach out to the voters. Young Balochs supportive of the liberation movement are indeed far more sophisticated in the use of social media and SMS campaigns as compared to the parliamentary parties.In a nutshell, the armed groups have a strategy that seems to be working  impressively in terms of disseminating their message among the general public.

Third, Sardar Mengal should know that his absence in the past four years has weakened the B.N.P. No political party can always remains the same if its leadership stays away from the party. In contrast, the top leadership of the Pakhtunkhawa Milli Awami Party and the National Party remained inside Balochistan despite boycotting the previous elections. Their leadership did not flee the country. They spent several years in identifying their weaknesses and preparing new strategies.

For instance, only one year after 2008 elections, Dr. Abdul Malik Baloch began to tell the media that he thought his party had made a blunder by boycotting the elections. Since then, he promised that his party would stage a comeback in the parliament.

The P.K.M.P and the N.P did so well in this year’s elections  because they had been preparing for more than four years for 2013 elections. It is true that these have been harsh years for the B.N.P. as their central leaders and activists were killed during this time. But the National Party also faced a similar situation and still continued to stay in the ground to fight. The P.K.M.P and the N.P. recruited new people and opened new party offices at the union council level. As far as the B.N.P. is concerned, it campaigned for less than a month prior to this year’s general elections. It is common sense that parties that have four-year preparation perform better than the one (read the B.N.P.) that campaigns only for a month.

Sardar Mengal must respect the mandate won by all parties, particularly the P.K.M.P. and the National Party.  He will have to learn from these parties’ success stories how to do politics. The open secret of these parties’ success is their flexible, pragmatic and inclusive politics.

But in order to normalize the B.N.P. Mr. Mengal will have to stay inside Balochistan with his party members for the next five years. He has to work tirelessly to rebuild the B.N.P. Moreover, the challenge would still not be very easy because he would have to persuade the Baloch people to  like Pakistan and vote in its elections. Not many young Baloch voters will listen to such “unpatriotic” appeals. So, what should Mengal do? Well, that is his homework for the next five years.

Originally published in The Baloch Hal on May 14, 2013

Political parties that won Saturday’s general elections in Balochistan have already initiated contacts with other parties to form a coalition government. According to the results announced by the Election Commission of Pakistan, the Pashtunkhawa Milli Awami Party has emerged as the largest political party with 11 seats in the Balochistan Assembly which is followed by the Pakistan Muslim League (P.M.L-Nawaz) and the independent candidates. The National Party, a  Baloch group, has also performed well enough to be taken seriously for government formation. 

After several years, it is the first time that a nationalists-led provincial government seems to be taking over Balochistan. But the P.M.L.-N that is almost certain to lead the future federal government will influence the formation of the Balochistan government. Speculations have already began about the name of the future chief minister.

Nawaz Sharif may have served as Pakistan’s prime minister twice but  the Balochistan he will be dealing with this time is  absolutely different from what he saw back in 1990s. It has become an explosive province with unimaginable potential for more chaos, violence and instability. When Mr. Sharif ran Pakistan in 1990s, Balochistan was underdeveloped and the poorest of the country’s four province but it was still a very clam province during his both terms.  Today, Balochistan needs Mr. Sharif’s immediate attention and he should include normalization of the situation in Balochistan as one of his top priorities.

To begin with, Mr. Sharif should play a politically wise role in assisting the parties in Balochistan pick up their new head of the government. There are speculations that the P.M.L-N would prefer to have its own men as the next chief minister. The P.M.L-N needs to think out of the box and offer some concessions to the nationalists if it ultimately benefits Balochistan in the long term.

The P.M.L-N does not have many promising candidates to address the issue of Balochistan. Three P.M.L-N leaders who could become Balochistan’s next chief minister include Jan Mohammad Jamali, a former Balochistan Chief Minister and a former deputy Speaker of Pakistan’s Senate; Sardar Sanaullah Zehri, a powerful Baloch tribal chief who is the provincial head of the P.M.L-N and also a former provincial minister; and Nawabzada Jangiz Marri, a son of the disillusioned veteran Baloch separatist leader Nawab Khair Baksh Marri.

If the P.M.L-N wants to at least make an attempt to resolve Balochistan crisis, it may have to drop the idea of appointing its own man as the head of the provincial government. Here is what we believe is wrong with all of its three possible candidates.

If any one of the three men mentioned above is appointed as the C.M., it will only take us back to Balochistan’s failed politics where Baloch tribal chiefs are undeservedly patronized by Islamabad. Mr. Sharif should play his role in ending that archaic political culture.  The appointment of Mr. Zehri will turn out to be as catastrophic as P.P.P.’s decision to appoint Aslam Raisani as the head of the previous government. It seems that the P.M.L-N has appointed Mr. Zheri as the head of the Party’s Balochistan chapter not for his democratic credentials but for his tribal influence.

On the other hand, Mr. Jamali also represents the status quo. He once stunned everyone on the floor of the Senate for his support for Mr. Israrullah Zehri of the Balochistan National Party Awami for his controversial remarks that burying women was the Baloch culture. Mr. Jamali had reportedly told the legislators from other provinces  they should not interfere in ‘our tribal matters’ when the issue of killing women in the name of honor was raised. Such men are dangerous to run our province where we need progressive men to take ownership to educate and empower our women.

The third possible choice,  Jangiz Marri, has no political significance besides the  only insignificant fact that he is Nawab Marri’s son. If he is appointed as the C.M. it will send a very wrong message to the Baloch nationalists that Mr. Sharif is pitting Mr. Marri against his own father and brothers who have taken a hard stance against the federal government. One of Islamabad’s oldest and deeply flawed policies has been the strategy of divide and rule among Balochs. But pitting a son against his father and brothers could be the worst and most extreme exhibition of that faulty policy.

Balochistan needs to get out of the old traditions to look forward. Here are three options we recommend.

First, the Pashtun mandate should be respected and the P.K.M.P. should be given an opportunity to elect Balochistan’s first full-time Pashtun chief minister. A respected figure like Nawab Ayaz Khan Jogezai, for example,  could play that important role. This option may not work because it involves fielding  a Pashtun chief minister in a dangerous situation against Baloch armed groups. Will a Pashtun nationalist be able to negotiate and influence the Baloch armed groups? If no, then the provincial government will ultimately fail in achieving its goal of stabilizing Balochistan. In that case, we also risk fanning Baloch-Pashtun communal disharmony.

Second, former senator and the President of the National Party, Dr. Abdul Malik Baloch should be considered for the office of the Chief Minister. He would become Balochistan’s first non-tribal chief minister. Dr. Baloch represents Balochistan’s middle class and he has taken enormous personal risks and opposition to defend peaceful democratic norms in Balochistan’s politics. His appointment will give faith to his supporters and like-minded political forces that peaceful democratic struggle pays off. Also, his appointment will encourage and empower  Balochistan’s  middle class to the extent that any citizens in Balochistan can dream of becoming the highest public official of the province.

Third, Sardar Akhtar Mengal’s Balochistan National Party (B.N.P.) has performed very poorly in the elections and the prospects for him become the C.M. have soemehow faded away. Yet, Mr. Sharif can bring Mengal back and give him the important responsibility of heading Balochistan’s government. He is too important to be left behind.  Mr. Mengal’s appointment may not benefit the P.M.L, P.K.M.P or the N.P. in terms of having their own party leaders on the coveted post. But pushing Mr. Mengal on the opposition benches will not be a very intelligent idea.

In case, the three majority parties do not reach consensus on one candidate, they should consider Mr. Mengal for the position. What distinguishes Mr. Mengal from the other candidates is his influence over Baloch nationalist politics. He heads the province’s largest political party which did not perform very well during the 2013 elections but Mr. Mengal is one of the last actual Baloch leaders who is still willing to negotiate with Pakistan. He should not be allowed to go to the camp that will cause problems for the new government.

Electing a dependable chief minister can help in addressing half of the problem in Balochistan while an incompetent and irresponsible C.M. like Nawab Aslam Raisani will aggravate the situation.

MALIK SIRAJ AKBAR

Originally published in The Baloch Hal on May 14, 2013

By Malik Siraj Akbar

Two weeks before Pakistan’s general elections scheduled for this weekend (May 11), the U.S.Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) recommended that Washington designate Islamabad as a Country of Particular Concern (CPC) with regard to the freedom of religion enjoyed by all citizens. The USCIRF says, among the countries that are currently not on the U.S. government’s CPR list, “Pakistan represents the worst situation in the world for religious freedom”.

While the USCIRF has been making this particular recommendation since 2002, the State Department has avoided taking action apparently because of the fear of annoying Pakistan, Washington’s defiant ally in the war on terror.

Pakistan’s religious minority groups, such as the Ahmadis, seem to have little faith in the outcome of the upcoming elections. They deem these polls as the harbinger challenging times ahead. Their fears are validated by a renewed hateful election campaign unleashed by Imran Khan, the country’s rising right-wing leader. Mr. Khan, who was ranked this week by the Pew Research Centeras Pakistan’s second most popular leader, has revived the anti-Ahmadi sentiments among orthodox Muslim voters to win more parliamentary seats.

Shaken by the political parties’ hateful campaigns, the fear of attacks from Muslim extremist groups and the State’s interminable discrimination, the Ahmadis are boycotting the elections. They complain that no party has committed to end widespread asocial and political discrimination.

The Ahmadiyya Muslim Community (AMC), whose followers are known as Ahmadis or Qadianis (the latter being a derogatory term only used by the Muslim clerics), is a consistently prosecuted population in Pakistan. The Ahmadis, whose faith is based on disputing the finality of Prophet Muhammad, consider Mirza Ghulam Ahmad, a 19th century messiah, a prophet and renounce the Islamic concept of jihad. Their global headquarter is located in Rabwah, a small town in the Punjab province.
Pakistan treated the Ahmadis as equal Muslim citizens until it passed the discriminatory Second Constitutional Amendment in 1974 which officially declared them as ‘non-Muslims’.

Since its independence in 1947, Pakistan has had an agonizing history of anti-Ahmadi movements headed by radical Muslim political groups. Unfortunately, these movements did not only give impetus to right-wing political groups such as the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), Pakistan’s version of the Muslim Brotherhood, but they also compelled the secular parties to surrender before the pressure of religious parties in order to protect their own Muslim vote.

The first violent anti-Ahmadi riots, instigated by the Muslim League, began in the Punjab in 1953 which led to the imposition of a martial law in the province. While the protests failed in enjoining the government to declare the Ahmadis as non-Muslims, it formally inducted political Islam, predominantly led by the JI, in Pakistan’s mainstream politics.

When elections were held in 1970, the Ahmadis voted for the secular Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) so that it guarded from future assaults from Muslim fanatics as witnessed in 1953. Ironically, Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto of the PPP, betrayed the Ahmadis. Known as a secular, Bhutto still compromised with the Islamists as soon as they initiated the second wave of anti-Ahmadi movement (May- October 1974). Bhutto surrendered to save his own government.

General Zia-ul-Haq, Pakistan’s ultraconservative dictator (1977-1988), continued the state’s anti-Ahmadi policies by depriving them of their identity. In 1984, he passed an ordinance making it unlawful for the Ahmadis to identify themselves as Muslims or even “pose as Muslims”. It is illegal for the Ahmadis to call their places of prayers as “mosque”.

Incessant curtailment of Ahmadi rights has encouraged Muslim extremists to attack their mosques. In 2010, for instance, 86 Ahmadi worshipers were killed in the city of Lahore. TheTehrik-i-Taliban Punjab claimed responsibility for the attack. The Pakistani authorities never brought the perpetrators to justice either they feared or favored the attackers.

The Ahmadis have richly contributed to Pakistan’s development. The country’s first foreign minister, Sir Zafarullah Khan, and the nation’s sole Noble Prize laureate, Dr. Abdul Salam, both belonged to the Ahmadiyya community. Pakistan does not recognize Dr. Salam as a national hero.

Pakistan’s army, democratic institutions, political parties and the youth have recently shown alarming signs of Islamization. Surveys show that the Pakistani youth prefers Islamic rule over western-style democracy. Such regressive tendencies weaken Pakistan’s democracy and divide people in the name of religion. Pakistan needs bold leadership that can restore the Ahmadi community’s pre-1974 status and accord them equal rights. The more Pakistan Islamizes itself, the more it will compromise the safety and well-being of its religious minorities.

Personally, I am not an Ahmadi. I was born and raised in an orthodox Sunni Muslim family. But I believe Pakistan’s, where I lived most of my life, treatment of the Ahmadi citizens is highly objectionable and inhumane. No state, including Pakistan, should discriminate its citizens based on their religious beliefs. After all, Pakistan’s founding fathers claimed that they had created the country as a reaction to what they billed as the so-called “Hindu discrimination” against the Muslims in India. What makes Saturday’s elections less exciting is the fact that Muslim Pakistanis will vote and the Ahmadi Pakistanis will boycott. By excluding the Ahmadis out of elections, Pakistan’s democracy is indeed missing something very important on the election day.

Published in The Baloch Hal on May 11, 2013

For instance, Mr. Mengal has said that the E.C.P. is deliberately not announcing the results of the constituencies where his party candidates had actually won the race. The former chief minister believes that the delay in the announcement of the results will grant his rivals and the pro-establishment candidates an opportunity to manipulate the results. Mr. Mengal has blamed the Establishment and the State for manipulating the polls against his party. He has specifically highlighted the situation in his native Khuzdar district where he says former Member of the National Assembly (M.N.A.) Rauf Mengal had received 22,000 votes and was doing better than other candidates for the N.A. seat but the results have been held. Similarly, Mr. Mengal says the results for the N.A. seats in Turbat-Gwadar and Chagi and Quetta have also been unnecessarily delayed.

“This is a clear attempt to prevent us from becoming a part of the democratic process,” complained Mr. Mengal who attracted tremendous criticism from hardliner Baloch groups over his decision to participate in this year’s elections. “We contested elections,” Mr. Mengal reminded,” only to prove the civil society wrong that we did not believe in democracy or were not capable of winning elections.”

The B.N.P. has also rejected the results of P.B. 4 and 5 in Quetta asking the E.C.P. to reorganize elections on these seats. At a press conference in Quetta, B.N.P. leaders and contestants Sajid Tareen, Akhtar Hussain Langov and Ahmad Nawaz have threatened to file a writ petition at the Supreme Court of Pakistan against the outcome of the elections. They said they had pointed out irregularities even during the polling process but the authorities did not pay attention to their complaints.

The B.N.P. clearly seems very frustrated with the outcome of the results. It has not performed as well as other Baloch and Pashtun nationalists such as the National Party and the Pashtunkhawa Milli Awami Party. The B.N.P., before joining the election race, admitted that the situation was not absolutely conducive to run for public office but they still decided to participate in the elections as a strategy.

The B.N.P. allegations are very serious. The E.C.P. should look into these charges and make every effort to ensure the immediate release of the polling results. The more the results are delayed, the more they generate suspicion in people’s minds. Irregularities, if ever substantiated, will badly tarnish the credibility of the future government in Balochistan. The B.N.P. is an important political player in Balochistan irrespective of the fact how many seats it has managed to win the polls. Denying B.N.P. a level playing field will backfire. Broadly speaking, even the B.N.P-Awami, generally considered as a pro-establishment party, has also complained about rigging. Former Agriculture Minister and B.N.P.-Awami’s secretary general Asad Baloch has objected to the election results in his native Panjgur where National Party candidates are reported to have won two seats for the provincial assembly.

The government’s primary responsibility is to come clean and disprove Mengal’s allegations regarding fraud and irregularities during  the elections. If it fails to do so, these election results could open another chapter of Baloch discontent. The E.C.P. should do whatever it takes to prove that the elections were not engineered and the government had no favorites.

Originally published in The Baloch Hal on May 12, 2013

Saturday’s general elections in Balochistan largely remained peaceful, transparent and productive despite the lowest voters’ turnout probably ever witnessed in the history of the province. Voters’ turnout is hardly given much consideration while judging the success of an election as long as a candidate is elected and all political parties are provided a level playing field in the election race. The turnout was so poor that even one candidate, who won a provincial assembly seat, obtained less than 1000 votes but he was still declared the winner because he had the highest number of votes.

At the time of writing this editorial, most results of the Balochistan Assembly are still awaited. It is premature to say which party will attain the highest number of seats but it is totally safe to conclude that Balochistan will, as usual, have a coalition government. Based on some of the initial unofficial results we have seen, the elections will positively influence Balochistan’s politics for good reasons. Consider:

First, all political parties, including the Baloch and Pashtun nationalists, participated in the elections. Candidates belonging to almost all parties faced major attacks and disruptions during their election campaigns but they remained resilient until the voting day. None of the parties or candidates raised objections against the care-taker government or accused it of using the official machinery for the advantage of  certain political parties. No pre-poll rigging complaints were made by any of the parties which showed their satisfaction with the whole process and the arrangements made for the elections. We barely heard anything about the Establishment’s interference as the campaigns in Baloch areas predominantly saw hardliner Balochs fighting the moderates.

Second, besides a few violent incidents, including a deadly blast in Naseerabad district that killed 14 people, polling took place in a relatively peaceful atmosphere in the rest of the province. The Baloch armed groups, just like the Taliban elsewhere in Pakistan, did not deliver their promise of bombing polling stations and attack candidates.  Over all, the state of law and order remained in control since political pundits were expecting deadlier attacks in Balochistan.

Third, the Baloch National Front’s two-day long shutter down and wheel jam strike was indeed very successful in terms of preventing the Baloch people from going to vote. In the long run, the boycott failed because members of he provincial assembly were still elected and the next assembly would not have a composition problem. It would still have representatives from the Baloch areas. The armed group’s warnings to attack elections will also go in the government’s favor because when the international election observers write their reports about the polls in Balochistan, they will attribute the low public turnout to the fear caused by insurgent groups, not the government’s interference or failures.

Fourth, two prominent Baloch nationalist leaders, Sardar Akhtar Mengal, president of the Balochistan National Party and Dr. Abdul Malik Baloch, president of the National Party, have both won their provincial assembly seats. The two leaders had boycotted the last general elections in 2008 and their participation has legitimized and validated this year’s elections. Whether Sardar Mengal, also a former chief minister of the province and Dr. Baloch, a former education minister, join the future government or lead the opposition, their presence in the Balochistan Assembly is very positive development. After all, the previous provincial government headed by the Pakistan People’s Party systematically crushed the provincial opposition by appointing every member of the assembly as a minister or adviser. This year, that culture is going to change and we expect that the province will have a strong and pro-active opposition that will hold the government accountable for its policies.

Fifth, the Pashtun nationalists have notched remarkable successes in their areas. Just like the Baloch nationalists, the Pashtun nationalists (except for the Awami National Party) also boycotted the previous elections. The initial results show that the Pashtun nationalists have quashed the right-wing Jamiat-Ulema-e-Islam (J.U.I.), an ardent supporter of the Taliban.  The Pashtun nationalists’ success is the victory of progressive and secular forces against the obscurantist J.U.I. This brings a lot of hope for the Pashtun areas and partly helps in limiting the influence of the Taliban in parts of Balochistan. The Pashtun community is the biggest victims of Pakistan’s pro-Taliban policies.

Sixth, one little but highly critical success on Saturday was that of Mr. Abdul Khaliq Hazara, chairman of the Hazara Democratic Party (H.D.P.). The Hazaras desperately need representation in the provincial assembly considering the upsurge in violence against them by Sunni militant group, the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi. More than one hundred Hazaras had been killed only this year in Balochistan. Previous members of the National and provincial assembly belonging to the Hazara community, such as Syed Nasir Ali Shah, Colonel (retired) Younas Changezi and Jan Ali Changezi, barely raised voice for the rights of the Hazara people. Hazaras need a capable and practical leader like Abdul Khaliq Hazara to lead them instead of allowing some Shia clerics to play with public sentiments and encourage Shia fundamentalism among the Hazara youths.  Mr. Hazara is also widely respected for his good relations with the Baloch and the Pashtun nationalists.

Seventh, the overwhelming success of Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League at the national level and also in the province of the Punjab gives hopes to  a new policy toward Balochistan. Mr. Sharif and his brother Shahbaz, a former chief minister of the Punjab, have been actively calling for reconciliation in Balochistan. They have opposed the use of military force in the province. The Sharifs have excellent working relations with almost all Baloch tribes and political stakeholders. Hence, they are uniquely positioned to use their rich contacts and newly acquired public mandate to reach out to the Pakistani military, the judiciary and the Baloch nationalists to find an win-win solution to the Balochistan conflict.

Finally, the care-taker chief ministerNawab Ghaus Bakhsh Barozai is appreciable for successfully organizing elections in the volatile province. There were several times when one thought that the government would postpone the elections but the chief minister, who worked as a ‘one-man government’ throughout the election season, ensured peaceful polls. Before the elections, he regularly met with the leaders of all political parties in order to educate everyone about the interim government’s policies.

Successful elections do not necessarily mean a successful transfer of power nor do they promise good governance. The new wave of violence against political candidates will continue even after the elections. So, the new government in Balochistan will inherit a bunch of serious problems that could not previously be fixed by the government even after the imposition of a state of Governor’s Rule in the province earlier this year.  The elections were indeed an important milestone but the way forward is going to entail a lot of challenges and opportunities for the future of Balochistan.

 Published in The Baloch Hal on May 11, 2013

The ad was referring to three secular political parties, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the Awami National Party (ANP.) and the Muthida Quami Movement (MQM). The three parties formed a coalition that ran the previous national government from 2008 to 2012. It was the first elected civilian government in Pakistan’s history that completed a five-year term and transferred powers to an interim government. Two weeks later, 90 million Pakistanis will vote on May 11 but the secular parties are finding it extremely difficult to return to power.

They have come under extraordinary deadly attacks from the Pakistani Taliban. Their election candidates have been assassinated and campaign rallies bombed. The attacks are endless and beyond one particular province or city.

The Taliban attacks have their short-term and long-term goals. The short-term goal is to compel the secular parties to drop from the election race while the long-term goal is to cleanse Pakistan’s political landscape from secular politics in the future.

In the past, political rivals were thrown out of power either through coups staged by the powerful military or through the ballot in elections. It is the first time that political opponents are being kicked out of the electoral race through brazen use of violence. The fact that Pakistan is heading toward elections is encouraging but the fact that secular and progressive parties are flatly denied a level playing field indeed makes these the most unfair elections in Pakistan’s history. All signs show that the Pakistani military, with its old ties with extremist Islamic groups and parties, is engineering such a selection process under the disguise of “elections” that will produce a right-wing, anti-U.S. government to influence the country’s policies in the wake of the end of the war in Afghanistan.

On the contrary, political parties, such as the Pakistan Muslim League of former prime ministerNawaz Sharif and the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf of retired cricket hero Imran Khan have been completely exempted from the Taliban assaults. The two parties sympathize with the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban and encourage negotiations with them. Based on their ability to freely campaign ahead of the elections without any fear of a Taliban attack, the PML-N and the PTI are likely to gain remarkable election, although undue, gains at the cost of fear created against the three secular parties.

This is an unprecedented phenomenon in Pakistani politics which should worry the nuclear armed Muslim nation’s democratic neighbors, such as India, and western friends, particularly the United States and the European Union.

As deadly attacks restrict secular parties’ movement, they use advertising as a tool to reach out to their voters. For example, the ad published in the Dawn newspaper said the secular parties were being punished for their commitment to the war on terror and Islamic extremism.

Lastly, the ad asked the voters: “Do You Want To Surrender or Emerge Victorious Against Terrorism? The Choice Is Yours!”

The U.S. State Department has clearly stated that the United States has no favorites in Pakistan’s elections. However, Lisa Curtis, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, has rightly observed in her April 29 article “Pakistan’s Troubled Election” in the National Interest:

“American officials must weigh this compulsion with the reality that moderate and liberal Pakistani leaders rely on the U.S. to actively promote democratic ideals, such as freedom of speech and religion, rule of law, and respect for a credible and fair electoral process.”

The United States’ absolute silence and neutrality on the Pakistani elections is not helpful. There have been too many deadly attacks on secular parties in Pakistan and Washington must urge Islamabad to end this cycle of violence against certain political parties.

General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the powerful head of Pakistan’s military, has taken a partisan position in support of the Islamic parties against those who wish to make Pakistan a secular, democratic nation.

On April 21, while speaking at the Pakistan Military Academy (PMA), General Kayani asserted his vision for an Islamic Pakistan.

“Pakistan was created in the name of Islam and Islam could never be taken out of Pakistan and Islam should always remain a unifying force.”

The general’s comments give credence to the Taliban stance as they also strive to transform Pakistan into a full-fledged Islamic state.

The army’s vocal support for Islam and Washington’s quietness has led some secular Pakistani politicians to conclude, probably incorrectly, that the United States is also supporting the Taliban in their attacks on the liberal politicians. For example, Dr. Farooq Sattar, a former senator from the MQM, said on Tuesday that he believed that the western powers “wanted to bring a government of rightwing parties just to ensure their safe exit from Afghanistan.”

Mere elections will not put Pakistan on the path to democracy and the rule of law. Elections that do not provide equal space to all parties to contest will have no legitimacy and credibility. The people of Pakistan have immeasurably suffered because of their military’s covert contacts and support for the Taliban and other extremist groups. A military-backed new front that provides the Taliban and their supporters a democratic umbrella will weaken the foundations of the Pakistani state and its commitment to the fundamental principles of democracy. For the United States, secular parties are its last allies left in Pakistan. They must not be left in the lurch. (Courtesy: Hufffington Post)

The National Party (N.P.) has taken a dramatic decision to support the right-wing Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (J.U.I.-Fazal) in Khuzdar district against the candidate of the Balochistan National Party (B.N.P.-Mengal). This move has attracted considerable criticism from Baloch nationalist quarters for a number of reasons.

Firstly, the J.U.I.-F was a part and parcel of the past two provincial governments responsible for the killing of Baloch people and carrying out deadly military operations in the province.

Secondly, it maintains close contacts with the Taliban and provides them shelter inside Balochistan. The formation of any kind of election alliance or seat-to-seat adjustment with J.U.I-F amounts to encouraging religious parties in Baloch areas. It is not a very healthy sign at a time when Balochistan is witnessing an extraordinary rise in Sunni extremism in the wake of the unabated attacks on the Shia, Hazara community in Quetta. The Baloch nationalists should in fact play a pivotal role in weakening and defeating religious parties instead of consolidating their grip over the province.

Thirdly, the two major Baloch nationalist parties, the B.N.P. and the N.P. should assist each other in winning the elections instead of pitting candidates and supporting religious elements against each other. Right now, Baloch secular parties should stay united if they want to stage a political comeback after the elections in order to change the political landscape of the province.

Jamil Akbar Bugti, a son of the late Nawab Akbar Bugti, has strongly objected to N.P.’s support for the J.U.I. In a statement published in local newspapers, Mr. Bugti asked the Baloch parties to refrain from using his late father’s name in the election campaigns. He alleged that the J.U.I. was equally responsible for the killing of his father and, he maintained, the N.P. had joined hands with the murderers of Nawab Bugti. Hence, Mr. Bugti, who lives in Quetta, appealed to the N.P. not to run an election campaign in the name of Nawab Bugti, who was killed in mysterious circumstances in 2006 by the General Musharraf regime.

On its part, the N.P., has defended its decision  by saying that the latter did not respond positively to repeated offers of electoral cooperation with the National Party. The N.P. senior leader and the former senator Hasil Khan Bizenjo said that his party was very keen and committed to the idea of brokering an electoral alliance with the B.N.P. but negotiations between the two parties did not succeed because the B.N.P. wanted more seats in the parliament.

The N.P. has not set  a very good precedence for the Baloch nationalists by supporting the J.U.I. against a Baloch nationalist political party. The N.P. knows that the B.N.P. had been winning the National Assembly seat from Khuzdar for many years.  All the past three winners of the seat from Khuzdar, Usman Advocate, Rauf Mengal and Sanaullah Baloch, had remained affiliated with the B.N.P. This year, B.N.P.’s victory in Khuzdar is extremely important if the Baloch nationalists want to limit the influence of Mr. Atta-ur-Rehman Mengal, a son of former senator Naseer Mengal. Mr. Mengal’s brother, ShafiqMengal, is accused of running the anti-Baloch nationalist death squad known as the Baloch Musla Defai Tanzeem and promoting radical Islam in the secular Baloch region. This underground group has killed hundreds of Baloch political workers allegedly with the support of the Pakistani intelligence agencies. Similarly, the N.P.’s support for the J.U.I will divide the nationalists’ votes which will also favor Sardar Sanaullah Zehri, the Balochistan head of the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (P.M.L.-N). Mr. Zehri had recently shown his personal disliking for Sardar Akhtar Mengal and the Marri family by registering a case against the two in connection to the killing of his son, brother and the nephew in a recent assault on his convoy.

The National Party is an important political group of Balochistan that believes in the empowerment of the Baloch middle class. But such absurd decisions raise eyebrows about N.P.’s questionable intentions and flawed electoral alliances. The Baloch society can hardly afford to vote for religious parties. While the people do have a right to vote for whoever they like, a progressive and secular Baloch party must not assist a religious party to come into power.

In support of his party’s decision, Senator Bizenjo has reminded how the B.N.P. chief Sardar Akhtar Mengal had once held hands with Maulana Mohammad Khan Sherani, the Balochistan head of the J.U.I. during his government in late 1990s. However, Senator Bizenjo should know that we no longer live in 1990s. The threat of religious extremism was nearly nonexistent at that time. Today, the situation has significantly changed across Pakistan. The Taliban and the homegrown Sunni extremist groups like the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi are trying to gain full control of Balochistan to reconfigure the dynamics of our secular society.

The National Party leadership should review their decision and withdraw the electoral support to the the J.U.I-F. in Khuzdar and elsewhere in Balochistan. Whether or not the N.P. agrees to adjust seats with the B.N.P. is secondary at this point.  Currently, the biggest concern is the left-wing Baloch nationalists’ support for the pro-Taliban J.U.I-F against another fellow Baloch Nationalist in a district which is constantly on the ‘must-occupy’ list of religious extremist elements.

Originally published in The Baloch Hal on April 30, 2013

Dr. Frederic Grare

What is the significance of your report on Balochistan for the international community, particularly for an American audience?

The conflict began in 2005 and was expected to last only for a few weeks but it has now entered its seventh year. The Americans do not want to cause more diplomatic and military confrontation with Pakistan at a time when they are preparing to withdraw from Afghanistan. Moreover a good deal of logistics for American troops stationed in Afghanistan still passes through Balochistan.

Balochistan is a real problem with a local background and history but its current incarnation seems absurd to many. The current outburst of violence was not something inevitable. The turmoil in Balochistan illustrates poor conflict management on the part of the Pakistani military. In fact, the military runs the whole country in a similar fashion by creating issues out of non-issues and eventually failing to resolve them once they become too hard to manage.

What is the difference between the current Baloch uprising and the past insurgencies?

It is true that Balochistan has had a troubled relationship with Pakistan since the country’s creation.  But in many ways today’s conflict seems artificial. The socio-economic grievances could have been addressed through negotiations rather than by force. The army launched an operation against a so-called separatist insurgency with no separatist claims (although such claims existed in parts of the movement).  As a result, today, the issue is real because the most radical elements among the Balochs have gained prominence in Balochistan, and the most moderate organizations have themselves been radicalized.

Why do you believe that the Baloch movement does not have the capability to succeed in terms of breaking away from Pakistan?

I certainly do not see the capability in the Baloch movement to break away. The Baloch nationalist movement is weak and divided. It is divided between radicals and moderate. Radicals are divided among themselves. The movement does not seem to have a clear strategy either.

On the one hand, if the Baloch nationalists are unable to gain independence the army is also unable to stabilize the province. Currently, it is lose-lose situation which should logically lead to negotiations between the two sides. However, there are no foreseeable signs of negotiations between the Baloch and the army.

In your report, you have proposed the formation of a permanent U.N. observer mission in Balochistan. Islamabad would not appreciate such recommendations as it would view it as a clear violation of its sovereignty.

The Pakistani establishment talks about sovereignty whenever it suits its own interests. With sovereignty comes responsibility and Pakistan has not demonstrated that responsibility while dealing with Balochistan. There is obviously no trust between the Baloch and the army. If the Pakistani government denies its involvement in what the Baloch nationalists blame it for, such as enforced disappearances and targeted killings of political opponents, then it should not be afraid of the proposed U.N. mission in Balochistan. If the establishment admits that such a policy existed in the past but has now been stopped, Islamabad should accept a U.N. permanent mission as a way to rebuild confidence building and pave the way for future negotiations with the Baloch. But even the appointment of a U.N. observer mission will not necessarily lead to bringing peace to Balochistan. This is just one of the many measures that need to be taken to re-establish trust.

You have also argued that most of the Baloch seek maximum provincial autonomy over absolute independence.

If you look at the origin of the current conflict, it was all about the Baloch demand for increasing the gas royalty, ensuring greater Baloch representation in the mega projects and ending the construction of military cantonments. Today, we have gone far away from those initial demands and no one is talking about them anymore.

Independence may be a dream for a number of Baloch but polls seem to demonstrate that the majority of them would accept more autonomy within the Pakistani confederation. It is unclear to me whether Baloch really believe independence is achievable and a number of Baloch leaders believe that freedom it is not. One of the consequences of the current conflict is that the only voices that can be heard are the Baloch who want independence and among them, the voices of the most radicals. This situation paradoxically serves the army.

How do you evaluate the role of the Supreme Court (S.C.) of Pakistan in taking up the issue of enforced disappearances?

So far, no institution has been able to correctly deal with the situation in Balochistan. However, the Supreme Court played an important role in bringing the Balochistan issue in public attention. At the same time, I was struck by the fact that Mr. Ifthakar Mohammad Chaudhary, the Chief Justice, refused to meet with a United Nations delegation that visited Balochistan to investigate the cases of enforced disappearance. His behavior was similar to that of the intelligence chiefs.  The S.C. has an ambivalent behavior toward Balochistan. To be fair, I think the S.C. should be credited for at least speaking up about Balochistan. Whether or not the S.C. interventions led to the recovery of the missing persons and the improvement of the situation is debatable.

During your research, you must have spoken to the Pakistani civil and military leadership. What is their stance on Balochistan? How do they interpret and justify their Balochistan policy?

Islamabad has always blamed what it calls a handful of greedy tribal chiefs for the unrest in Balochistan. The tribal chiefs’ issue is a part of the problem but it does not explain the causes of the whole conflict. The uprising has been quite intense on the Mekran coast which was in fact not a tribal area. Tribal system in central Balochistan is also not as strong as it is in Kohlu and Dera Bugti districts but there too, the resistance to Islamabad’s policy was quite strong. Many people outside Balochistan agree that Balochistan had not been treated fairly and they are willing to compromise on socio-economic issues even if they oppose the idea of Balochistan’s separation. Until 2005, there was not a single Baloch demand which was not negotiable. 

Do you now see a change in the behavior of most Pakistanis toward Balochistan?

If you read Pakistan’s English press, you realize that Balochistan is much more popular outside Balochistan than it was in the past. There is more empathy for the Baloch today as compared to the past. Part of this change in behavior is because of the people’s rejection of the army’s policies. Besides the Balochistan issue, there is generally a change in public perception of the Pakistan military. The people have begun to openly criticize the military, holding it responsible for many of Pakistan’s problems. Since the nationalist movement does not show the promise and the capability to achieve independence, this fact has increased the level of empathy for the Baloch elsewhere in Pakistan.

Pakistan often blames foreign countries, such as India, for creating unrest in Balochistan. Did you come across any such evidence while conducting your research? 

Well, the claim of foreign involvement in Balochistan has been there since the beginning. The Pakistani government officials have not had a consistent stance on Balochistan. For instance, in 2004, the then Balochistan governor, Awais Ahmed Ghani, said there was no problem in the province but the next month he said that there were several training camps in Balochistan which were allegedly run with the assistance of the Indians. The Pakistani government has never publicized any evidence of Indian involvement in Balochistan. Even if there is foreign involvement, it does not negate the fact that Pakistan kept Balochistan under development for several decades. Foreign powers are not responsible for Balochistan’s backwardness and bad treatment by the central government. There had always been ample genuine reasons for Balochistan to revolt.

What were some of the biggest surprises while researching your paper? 

The blindness of the military. I can understand their willingness to keep Balochistan within the Federation. No country accepts easily separatist tendencies. But I don’t think there was any reason to push the situation to the extent it has gone. As already said, all the initial motivations of the conflicts were negotiable. Military action and excessive use of force has given prominence and undue credit to the most radicals among the Baloch. Pakistan has succeeded in dividing the Balochs to the extent that Islamabad no longer seriously worries about Balochistan’s break-up but the fact of the matter is that the risk of separation did not exist in the first place. It was created because of imprudent policies. The call for separation has come only in the wake of Pakistan’s blind use of force against the Baloch. Now, Balochistan has become such a mess that the Pakistani authorities do not know what to do with it. The military created the mess and now expects the civilian government to deal with it. The government, on its part, sees it beyond its control to manage the conflict. The problem with the Pakistani elite is their failure to give the country a positive sense of nationalism. You cannot convince people to be proud Pakistanis through repression.

Where do you see Balochistan five to ten years down the line? 

I think Balochistan risks becoming a complete power vacuum if it is not already. Some areas of Balochistan will be totally out of control. In order to reestablish trust, the Baloch nationalists have to be included in the provincial government. But this will produce the desired effect only if they can deliver something to the population, in the form of greater autonomy, within the federal framework for example. It remains to be seen whether this year’s elections will produce the desired outcome.

Originally published in The Baloch Hal on April 26, 2013

Two weeks before the upcoming general elections, the Government Teachers’ Association (G.T.A.), the biggest union of public school teachers in Balochistan, hasannounced that its members will not perform election duty on May 11 due to security concerns. The G.T.A. says as many as 18,441 government school teachers in 11 Baloch-dominated districts of Balochistan will not offer their services on the election day despite a call from the government. The Election Commission of Pakistan (E.C.P.) heavily depends on these teachers to conduct the administrative business at various polling stations. They perform a number of tasks,including assisting voters to correctly go through all processes of voting. They also help in voters’ identity verification and ensuring transparency during the voting time. 

The G.T.A. decision has the potential to deeply alarm the federal and provincial governments.

The G.TA. comprises of the employers of the Department of Education which means they receive their salary from the government. The government trains and prepares them weeks or months ahead of the election day. This decision is a clear expression of no trust from the government’s own people in the state of preparedness for the elections. The teachers rightly argue that if the government has not been able to protect highly powerful political figures and the offices of political parties then how come the teachers, who will be performing election duty would, be safe. We appreciate the G.T.A.’s decision because every trade union is responsible to think about the safety and welfare of its members. At this time, every teacher who is forced by the government to perform election duty would be put at high risk.

The G.TA. has actually taken a very pragmatic stance on the matter. It says that teachers who are satisfied with the government security arrangements and wish to continue their election day tasks, should do so. However, the G.T.A. will not either force someone to perform or refrain from their duty. The G.T.A. justifiably expects that it would not be blamed in the future for not taking precautionary measures for the safety of the teachers in case some unpleasant events occur.

On the government’s side, the most expected and harsh reaction can be a possible warning to fire all teachers who will not show up on duty on May 11th. But it is not possible for the government to sack more than 18,000 teachers at the same time. The G.T.A. is one of the strongest unions in Balochistan and they will paralyze the whole government. The government should admit its failure to restore peace in Balochistan ahead of the general elections. The decision of the European Union, for instance, to not visit Balochistan for election monitoring clearly indicates that nobody is satisfied with the current state of election preparations. The government should not blackmail the teachers and let them make their collective decision based on their interests.

Unfortunately, the government is running out of time. One should prepare to see a bizarre reaction from the government if the teachers continue their protest. In a worst case scenario, the army may be called to replace the teachers. Are they trained to do so? Or, can they be prepared within two weeks to hold the elections? We will know in the next few days.

Originally published in The Baloch Hal on April 28, 2013